There are two primary and closely connected reasons why UFOs are not treated seriously by the scientific community and the mainstream press. One is their acceptance of the work of the U.S. Air ForceÕs Project Blue Book UFO investigation of 1948-1969. The other is their acceptance of the report of the University of ColoradoÕs study of UFOs in 1966-1968, paid for by the Air Force.
These studies and especially their final reports form a tall barrier between science, the U.S. Government and the press on one side, and the small serious arm of the private UFO community on the other. The two investigations concluded that tens of thousands of UFO sighting reports amount to nothing more than honest mistakes, along with hoaxes and pathetic cries for attention.
If the results of these taxpayer-financed efforts can be believed, then there is no rational basis for further serious interest in UFOs. If, on the other hand, there are significant weakness in one or both these studies, then there may yet be something in UFOs of real consequence which awaits the clear light of day.
The U.S. Air Force conducted more-or-less public investigations of UFO reports from 1948 through 1969, amassing more than 12,500 cases. Of these, it admits to having failed to explain 701 cases, or 5_% of the total. The Air Force strongly suggests that even the admittedly unexplained reports could have been explained if only more information had been available. If true, this should have spelled the end of serious interest in UFOs.
But Project Blue BookÕs own set of definitions states that there was a completely separate category for cases having Òinsufficient informationÓ. The hundreds of cases officially declared to be ÒunidentifiedÓ were those for which the Air Force felt it had sufficient information, but the nature of that information did not suggest any conventional explanation. These, according to the Air Force, were truly ÒunexplainedÓ reports of sights that must have some explanation, even if the experts were unable to find it.
While detailed statistics are not available for the entire 22 years of the Air Force investigation, they are suggested by published data for the first five years. A government-contracted study by the private Battelle Memorial Institute, and a break-down of cases by one of the chiefs of Project Blue Book, agree. Both show that the number of cases declared ÒunidentifiedÓ, when added to those listed as only ÒpossiblyÓ identified (or ÒdoubtfullyÓ explained), exceed 50% of all the reports for which there was enough data to permit analysis!
With fewer than half the cases in the official files having convincing explanations, how could any firm conclusions be drawn? Other than the one the Air Force no doubt prefers to ignore, which is that the first five years of its UFO investigation amounted to a failure.
As bad as this makes Project Blue Book look, the actual situation is even worse. A close look at cases categorized as ÒdefinitelyÓ or ÒprobablyÓ explained reveals a significant percentage that obviously should be changed to ÒpossiblyÓ explained or ÒunexplainedÓ. Their official explanations are, in case after case, completely without rational, scientific basis. These are cases in which the witnesses (often military and airline pilots) to close-up, daylight observations of craft having radical shape and spectacular performance, were told they had seen nothing more unusual than clouds or balloons or ordinary airplanes. Had these professional pilots actually been so easily fooled by such common sights, they could not be trusted to perform their daily duties with professionalism and safety.
Clearly, all the reports in the Project Blue Book files should be reevaluated by a genuinely independent group of scientists. The results should then be studied, with emphasis on those lacking conventional explanations, for that is where any mystery must lie. In view of the results of other studies of large numbers of unexplained reports, a new one would almost certainly reveal that the unidentified UFOs displayed clear patterns of appearance (shape, color, etc.) and behavior (speed, maneuverability, sounds). Those patterns, in turn, strongly suggest that we are dealing with completely unfamiliar phenomena.
In 1966, a select group of scientists and academics at the University of Colorado was contracted to conduct a study of UFOs for the U. S. Air Force. While the specifics of their exact mission were never revealed even to the study participants, the major private UFO organizations offered their full support. It looked like UFOs were about to be the subject of a proper, independent scientific investigation for the first time in history.
But even before the study began, its director, well known physicist Dr. Edward U. Condon, was being quoted in the press as ridiculing the very idea of a ÒseriousÓ study of UFOs. He apologized, but continued to repeat his biased remarks. A letter was found in University of Colorado files which cast serious doubt upon the objectivity of those who wrote and signed the contract.
Before the final report of the study was released in 1969, it was given the stamp of approval by a National Academy of Sciences committee which was headed by a friend and former student of Dr. Condon.
When a commercially published version of the lengthy report was released, it could be seen that there was considerable disagreement among the authors. Dr. Condon, in his summary, wrote off UFOs and their study as worthless. The body of the report, however, contained fascinating material strongly suggesting a phenomenon worthy of an expanded study, as was later recommended by a committee of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics. More than 30% of almost 100 cases were left without explanations. Some clearly had the university group completely stumped, and they did not hesitate to express their puzzlement in terms that made clear their position.
Regardless, Dr. CondonÕs totally negative view of UFOs as a subject for study led directly to the Air Force shutting down Project Blue Book in late 1969 and announcing it no longer would accept UFO reports. While there is reason to believe a secret UFO study continued in the National Aerospace Intelligence Center at Wright Patterson AFB, Ohio, this has been repeatedly denied, as would be expected.
If serious consideration of UFO sightings and their possible implications is ever to be possible, the work by the U.S. Air Force and the University of Colorado must be shown to be contrary to science and thus impotent. This will require a thorough reappraisal of the content and analysis of UFO reports from these two otherwise praiseworthy organizations.
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